In-Stat says 3G wireless success impedes 4G LTE ramp-up

Long term evolution (LTE), the next-generation mobile broadband standard, is the clear choice for the next leap in wireless technology, according to the research firm In-Stat.

In-Stat analyst Allen Nogee says that WiMax appeared to be a competitor for 4G, but “that battle is now largely resolved.” Nogee says LTE’s deployment will primarily be impeded by the success of 3G networks and HSPA and HSPA+ networks as mobile operators seek to leverage their installed infrastructure.

“LTE still has several glaring issues,” Nogee adds. “These include lack of spectrum, signal-to-noise ratio, and non-established patent and royalty pool. It’s clear that the shift toward 4G LTE will be gradual and protracted.”

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

• LTE deployments will effectively begin in 2010. North America and Asia/Pacific will be the first regions to deploy.
• While LTE will ultimately become the 4G standard of choice, Mobile Wi-Max is much more mature in deployment and has a distinct niche. Even by 2013, Mobile Wi-Max will have more than 5 times as many global subscribers as LTE.
• External clients, such as dongles, network cards, and USB dongles will be the first LTE subscriber devices sold. LTE mobile handsets will not start shipping in major volumes until 2H12.
• WiMAX deployments have given chipset manufacturers, device manufacturers, and infrastructure suppliers real-world experience.

The research, “The Road to LTE: Is WiMAX Really the Enemy?” (#IN1004525WBB), covers the worldwide market for 4G wireless technology. It includes:

• Examination of the evolution of 3G to 4G wireless technology.
• LTE deployment plans by major operators and by region.
• Cellular and mobile LTE subscription forecasts through 2013.
• Forecasts of LTE external clients device and PC shipments through 2013.

For a free sample of the report and more information, contact Elaine Potter at: epotter@reedbusiness.com or (480) 483-4441.